Canada’s Pivot to Europe

Frédéric Mérand, Université de Montréal

frederic.merand@umontreal.ca 

May 1, 2025

Although not everyone thinks it possible or even desirable to turn Canada into the 28th member of the European Union, all the esteemed colleagues who contributed to this debate, as well as a majority of Canadians, seem to agree that America’s domestic and international drift forces us to get much closer to the EU. In this rejoinder, I return to the case for EU membership before sketching out a roadmap for a European pivot, even short of membership.

Should we apply for EU membership?

The question of whether to apply for EU membership or not is important but it should not distract our attention from the real goal, which is to diversify our economic, security, political, and cultural relations away from the Southern neighbor. As I made clear in my original piece, for me the question of EU membership is essentially strategic. There are, in my view, three reasons to submit an application now, even if it leads nowhere: showing Trump we’re not going to be bullied because we have options, giving a stronger impetus to our rapprochement with Europe, and hedging our bets in case the US really goes south for a good period of time.

I do recognize the risks of such a strategy. Replacing our main trade partner along the border with a mere commercial prospect 6000km across the ocean sounds delusional. Launching a debate with huge constitutional implications may stoke unwanted disunity in the country. Taken together, these two risks mean that our application to become a member of the EU may backfire. That is why it should be clear that opening negotiations is just that. Nothing is decided until everything is decided, and each side has plenty of time to make up their mind.

What about Canadian sovereignty? Wouldn’t we lose it if, 10 years from now, we did become part of the EU? Personally, I don’t think it likely that the EU will become as dangerous or intrusive as the US. Belonging to a loose multilevel governance structure with exit options is not at all like becoming the 51st American state. But I do take seriously the possibility that the US would react negatively to our desire to become European. Given that Trump seems to borrow from Putin’s script in his dealings with Canada, that is a real risk. But the risk of incurring Trump’s wrath is probably not much lower if we don’t do anything.

Overall, the wisdom of submitting a strategic application to the EU hinges on whether the US returns to normal (say, in 2026) or becomes an authoritarian regime with imperial ambitions. If the first scenario turns out to be true, we will enjoy good trade relations with the US again and applying for EU membership will have proven to be a waste of our time (although exploring avenues for deeper cooperation would not be wasted). But in the second scenario, I daresay we’ll be happy to have hedged our bets. 

A roadmap for the European pivot

While we ponder the decision to apply for EU membership, we can start to think about how to get closer to the EU, with or without membership. The question is, how? Here’s a roadmap that is much inspired by the various contributions collected by Achim Hurrelmann.

1.        Sign a Solidarity Pact with the EU and the UK. In 2016, Canada and the EU endorsed a Strategic Partnership Agreement. It was not the first document that seeks to institutionalize bilateral cooperation on international peace and security. Although Ottawa and Brussels, Paris, London and Berlin are often said to be like-minded on international issues, the reality is that no one outside Global Affairs Canada pays much attention to this cooperation which lacks symbols. We could go much further with the signing of a Solidarity Pact. Such a Pact would state that none of the signatory nations should seek to negotiate a separate trade deal with Russia, China, or the United States. That, in my view, is exactly the pledge of solidarity we need to isolate the White House: across the Atlantic, excluding the US, and potentially including other threatened democracies such as Japan, South Korea, or Mexico.

2.        Exploit CETA to the fullest extent. Although Canada and the EU signed a third-generation free trade agreement in 2016, it is not fully implemented yet. One obstacle is non ratification by France and Italy, but that is not the biggest challenge. For CETA to work to its fullest extent, regulatory and administrative harmonization is required. The day we can easily import a low-energy German water boiler and export cheap Canadian beef, the day a Spanish infrastructure company can submit a real bid in Quebec and a Canadian computer scientist can easily move to Belgium to look for a job, we’ll have achieved much to shrink the Atlantic. But those changes need major political impetus because they face vested interests on both sides of the ocean. To face these vested interests (which would have as a side effect the completion of the Canadian internal market), the prospect of EU membership would be very powerful, but strong political commitment to CETA would help.

3.        Invest in each other’s sovereignty. Political will is also be necessary to build the infrastructures we need to reorient a large part of our trade to Europe (and beyond, to the Middle East, Africa and South America) and beef up our economic sovereignty. I am not only talking about natural resources but also about the need for capital in Canada. Now, the EU doesn’t have impressive growth, but it has a lot of savings, some of which will look to alternatives from the US. With our eyes firmly set on the European market, the current crisis is an opportunity to bring foreign investment in to upgrade our ports, rail, energy, and communication networks. As Canada and the EU both seek greater sovereignty from other great powers, their governments could agree on a reciprocal “Buy Canada-Europe” deal, whereby each partner would treat the other’s firms as privileged in public procurement. Start with defense, satellites, and cloud computing.

4.        Prepare for E-NATO. While the Atlantic Alliance may survive Trump, it will be a much-Europeanized military organization. Most European nations, including the UK, are increasing their defense spending and getting ready to be able to defend themselves without the US. Recently, Canada announced that it would join RearmEU, a massive spending program that heralds the military reindustrialization of Europe. If we’re serious about decreasing our dependence on the US, Canada needs to be part of all European-led initiatives that seek to increase strategic autonomy. That includes buying European equipment and positioning our firms in European supply chains. Some of these initiatives will be bilateral or based in the EU. Many will take place in a Europeanized NATO (E-NATO), of which we could be the most reliable Atlantic flank.

5.        Lower barriers to free movement of people and ideas across the Atlantic. Some people fear that our rapprochement with the EU may divide Canadians because it would imply a special relationship with former imperial powers that may not make a lot of sense for Canadians of different ancestry or even be acceptable to First Nations. Although I take this point, I think it needs to be put in the following perspective: As US universities turn into more difficult partners, traveling to the US on holidays gets scary, and US cultural influence becomes synonymous with tech bros supporting Trump’s agenda, we have few alternatives other than Europe. Canada’s recent participation in Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe shows the way, but it needs a sparkle. On the basis of reciprocity, student and temporary work visas could be delivered almost automatically. Our public media should work with Europeans to share content and create new platforms. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t also do the same with other partners, such as South Korea or Mexico.

In conclusion

There are many reasons to think that joining or even getting significantly closer to the EU is a bad idea. Trump and Western populists wouldn’t like it. Business would fear losing the US market. Provinces would put up all kinds of obstacles to harmonization. Many Canadians wouldn’t see the point.  But if we’re serious about decreasing our economic, security and cultural dependence on the US, I see no better option. A European pivot is the best way to ensure Canadian sovereignty. The alternative, for a 40-million people country, is to double down on our dependence: buying more US military equipment, selling more oil to the US, letting Big Tech overtake our cultural industries, and live in constant fear of what Trump and his acolytes will do next. The more you look at the big picture, the smallest the obstacles to becoming a more European country become.